Effects of Mode Shares on Mode Choice

This study considers the influence of the knowledge of existing mode shares on travelers mode choice. This contrasts with traditional mode choice models, where the main objective is to predict the overall mode shares as the aggregate of individual mode choices according to variables encompassing attributes of the modes, and characteristics of the travelers. In this study, a computer-administered adaptive stated preference survey is developed and applied to a sample of subjects selected from the University of Minnesota. The results indicate that the presence of mode shares in the mode choice model does influence the decision of travelers.mode choice, mode shares, mixed logit, stated preference.

Entry Mode Choice of Multinational Banks

When expanding abroad, a multinational bank faces a trade-off between accessing a foreign country via cross border lending or a financial foreign direct investment, i.e. greenfield or acquisition entry. We analyze the entry mode choice of multinational banks and explicitly derive the entry mode pattern in the banking industry. Moreover, we show that in less developed banking markets, a trend towards cross border lending and acquisition entry exists. Greenfield entry prevails in more developed markets. Furthermore, we identify a tendency towards acquisition entry in small and towards greenfield entry in larger host countries

Freight mode choice and adaptive stated preferences

This paper presents empirical results from a survey of determinants of mode choice for freight in India. The Leeds Adaptive Stated Preference software was used for the main survey which was carried out in summer 1998 on the Delhi to Bombay corridor. The survey results show that frequency of service is an important attribute determining mode choice. Valuation of reliability is generally lower than expected. Value of time is quite similar across different product segments. Given prevailing costs, the results suggest that intermodal services can be viable for high value and finished goods

Modelling departure time and mode choice

As a result of increasing road congestion and road pricing, modelling the temporal response of travellers to transport policy interventions has rapidly emerged as a major issue in many practical transport planning studies. A substantial body of research is therefore being carried out to understand the complexities involved in modelling time of day choice. These models are contributing substantially to our understanding of how travellers make time-of-day decisions (Hess et al, 2004; de Jong et al, 2003). These models, however, tend to be far too complex and far too data intensive to be of use for application in large-scale modelling forecasting systems, where socio-economic detail is limited and detailed scheduling information is rarely available. Moreover, model systems making use of the some of the latest analytical structures, such as Mixed Logit, are generally inapplicable in practical planning, since they rely on computer-intensive simulation in application just as well as in estimation. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to describe the development of time-period choice models which are suitable for application in large-scale modelling forecasting systems. Large-scale practical planning models often rely on systems of nested logit models, which can incorporate many of the most important interactions that are present in the complex models but which have low enough run-times to allow them to be used for practical planning. In these systems, temporal choice is represented as the choice between a finite set of discrete alternatives, represented by mutually exclusive time-periods that are obtained by aggregation of the actual observed continuous time values. The issues that face modellers are then: -how should the time periods be defined, and in particular how long should they be? -how should the choices of time periods be related to each other, e.g. is the elasticity for shorter shifts greater than for longer shifts? -how should time period choice be placed in the model system relative to other choices, such as that of the mode of travel? These questions cannot be answered on a purely theoretical basis but require the analysis of empirical data. However, there is not a great deal of data available on the relevant choices. The time period models described in the paper are developed from three related stated preference (SP) studies undertaken over the past decade in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands. Because of the complications involved with using advanced models in large-scale modelling forecasting systems, the model structures are limited to nested logit models. Two different tree structures are explored in the analysis, nesting mode above time period choice or time period choice above mode. The analysis examines how these structures differ by data set, purpose of travel and time period specification. Three time period specifications were tested, dividing the 24-hour day into: -twenty-four 1-hour periods; -five coarse time-periods; -sixteen 15-minute morning-peak periods, and two coarse pre-peak and post-peak periods. In each case, the time periods are used to define both the outbound and the return trip timings. The analysis shows that, with a few exceptions, the nested models outperform the basic Multinomial Logit structures, which operate under the assumption of equal substitution patterns across alternatives. With a single exception, the nested models in turn show higher substitution between alternative time periods than between alternative modes, showing that, for all the time period lengths studied, travellers are more sensitive to transport levels of service in their choice of departure time than in choice of mode. The advantages of the nesting structures are especially pronounced in the 1-hour and 15-minute models, while, in the coarse time-period models, the MNL model often remains the preferred structure; this is a clear effect of the broader time-periods, and the consequently lower substitution between time-periods.

Entry Mode Choice of Multinational Banks

When expanding abroad, a multinational bank faces a trade-off between accessing a foreign country via cross border lending or a financial foreign direct investment, i.e. greenfield or acquisition entry. We analyze the entry mode choice of multinational banks and explicitly derive the entry mode pattern in the banking industry. Moreover, we show that in less developed banking markets, a trend towards cross border lending and acquisition entry exists. Greenfield entry prevails in more developed markets. Furthermore, we identify a tendency towards acquisition entry in small and towards greenfield entry in larger host countries.foreign bank entry; multinational bank; cross border lending; greenfield entry; acquisition entry

Assessing the Value of Time Travel Savings – A Feasibility Study on Humberside.

It is expected that the opening of the Humber Bridge will cause major changes to travel patterns around Humberside; given the level of tolls as currently stated, many travellers will face decisions involving a trade-off between travel time, money outlay on tolls or fares and money outlay on private vehicle running costs; this either in the context of destination choice, mode choice or route choice. This report sets out the conclusions of a preliminary study of the feasibility of inferring values of travel time savings from observations made on the outcomes of these decisions. Methods based on aggregate data of destination choice are found t o be inefficient; a disaggregate mode choice study i s recommended, subject to caveats on sample size

Passengers' Airport Choice

Modelling airport choice of passengers has been a subject of interest for air transport scientists and airport managers already for a while. Wilken, Berster and Gelhausen have reported of a market segment specific model approach to airport choice in Germany in a paper entitled "Airport Choice in Germany - New Empirical Evidence of the German Air Traveller Survey 2003" presented at the Air Transport Research Society World Conference 2005 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In continuation of the analysis of airport choice, based on the evidence coming from the data of the survey mentioned, this paper deals with a model of combined airport and access mode choice in Germany by market segment. The question arises why to model airport and access mode choice simultaneously. The underlying hypothesis is that airport and access mode choice are closely interrelated. Air travellers typically have a strong preference to choose the nearest airport as the aforementioned survey reveals. In Germany, 67% of the air travellers choose on average the nearest airport, however, travel time not only depends on distance covered, but also on the accessibility of fast access modes, such as for instance high speed intercity trains, to reduce travel time. Access time and access cost play a major role in airport choice, which in turn depend on access mode choice. The availability of access modes is again airport specific. Because of the strong dependence of airport and access mode choice on each other a combined model approach seems more sensible than two separate models. The combined approach allows including the aforementioned interrelations. This paper presents a combined airport and access mode choice model based on a nested logit approach, first presented at the Air Transport Research Society World Conference 2006 in Nagoya, Japan. It is called a "generalized nested logit model for airport and access mode choice" as it is not restricted to specific airports or a certain number of airport and access mode combinations, but allows to evaluate airport plans like the future Berlin-Brandenburg International Airport (BBI) in the southeast of Berlin or the introduction of new access modes, like a direct high speed intercity train access at already existing airports as this was the case between Cologne and Frankfurt airport in 2002. The case study concluding the paper is a modified excerpt of a study dealing with different future scenarios relating to airport and access mode choice in the Cologne region conducted by the author. As a means to achieve a general applicability of the model airports have been grouped into “airport categories”. Airports are categorised from a demand-oriented point of view to form clusters of homogenous airports regarding their general picture of their flight plan. The model is of particular interest for airport managers as well as high speed rail providers since it shows the dependence between the market share of an airport and access mode combination and its quality regarding their attributes, e.g. travel time, travel cost and weekly flight frequency to a given destination.Airport and access mode choice, discrete choice models, German Air Traveller Survey 2003, high speed train access, nested logit model

Heuristics and Biases in Travel Mode Choice

. This study applies experimental methods to analyze travel mode choice. Two different scenarios are considered. In the first scenario, subjects have to decide whether to commute by car or by metro. Metro costs are fixed, while car costs are uncertain and determined by the joint effect of casual events and traffic congestion. In the second scenario, subjects have to decide whether to travel by car or by bus, both modes in which costs are determined by the combination of chance and congestion. Subjects receive feedback information on the actual travel times of both modes. We find that individuals exhibit a marked preference for cars, are inclined to confirm their first choice and demonstrate travel mode stickiness. We conclude that travel mode choice is subject to heuristics and biases that lead to robust deviations from rational choice.travel mode choice, learning, information, heuristics, cognitive biases.